英国变异新冠病毒传播率提高70%，数据准确吗？中国怎么办？元旦还能出行吗？疾控中心专家权威解答

 

当地时间12月21日，世卫组织举行新冠肺炎例行发布会，世卫组织卫生紧急项目技术主管玛丽亚·范·科霍夫在回答总台记者提问时表示，英国上报的新冠病毒变体9月已在当地传播，目前英国报告的数据显示此种新冠病毒变体传播力增强，传播指数从1.1上升至1.5。20日起，伦敦及周边地区，已从三级防控级别提升至最高级别四级。目前已有多国宣布禁止英国航班入境。

On December 21, local time, WHO held a routine press conference for new coronary pneumonia. Maria van Khov, the technical director of WHO's health emergency project, said in response to a question from a reporter from the main station that the new coronavirus variant reported in the UK 9 It has been spread locally by the month. The current data reported by the United Kingdom shows that the spread of this new coronavirus variant has increased, and the spread index has risen from 1.1 to 1.5. Starting on the 20th, London and surrounding areas have been upgraded from the third level of prevention and control to the highest level Level four. At present, many countries have announced the prohibition of British flights.

面对英国新冠病毒变体的消息，中国的疫情防控形势面临哪些新变化？元旦临近，春节也要来了，新的人员大规模流动，又会对疫情防控带来什么影响？12月21日晚的央视《新闻1+1》节目中，总台记者白桦、中国疾控中心副主任冯子健对大众关注的问题进行了解答。

Facing the news of the British new crown virus variant, what new changes are facing China's epidemic prevention and control situation? New Year's Day is approaching and the Spring Festival is also coming. What impact will the large-scale movement of new personnel have on epidemic prevention and control? On the evening of December 21st, CCTV's "News 1+1" program, CCTV reporter Bai Hua and China CDC Deputy Director Feng Zijian answered questions of public concern.

关于在英国出现的新冠病毒变异情况，哪些信息可以确认？

What information can be confirmed about the mutation of the new coronavirus in the UK?

总台记者 白桦：在英国卫生与社会保健部官方网站上，英国首席医疗官克里斯·惠蒂对变异的新冠病毒有一个简短声明，第一点他就承认英国出现了新变异的病毒。

Headquarters reporter Bai Hua: On the official website of the British Ministry of Health and Social Care, British Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty made a brief statement about the mutated new coronavirus. The first point he admitted was the emergence of a new mutated virus in the UK.

从英国东南部开始，迅速蔓延到英国，至于蔓延速度到底有多快，并没有明确说明。目前没有任何科学根据表明变异的新冠病毒致死率会更高、对疫苗的有效性会产生影响，这些都需要时间和科学家进一步证明。

Starting from the southeast of England, it spread rapidly to the UK. As for how fast the spread is, there is no clear explanation. There is currently no scientific basis to show that the mutated new coronavirus will have a higher lethality and will affect the effectiveness of the vaccine. These will require time and scientists to further prove it.

英国正在和世卫组织积极联系，密切关注英国疫情变化，以便采取更为急迫的措施。英国广播公司在21日早上的一篇文章中提到一个数据，英国政府承认变异后的新冠病毒，传播速率提高了70%。而在《金融时报》最新的一篇文章中指出，“表明该变种增强传染性的一个事实是：自9月20日在肯特郡（Kent）出现后，到11月初，该变种在伦敦造成了28%的感染；在12月9日结束的那一周造成62%的感染。”

The UK is actively liaising with the WHO to closely monitor the changes in the UK epidemic in order to take more urgent measures. The BBC mentioned a data in an article on the morning of the 21st that the British government admitted that the mutated new coronavirus has increased its transmission rate by 70%. In a recent article in the Financial Times, it was pointed out that “a fact that shows that this variant is more contagious is that after it appeared in Kent on September 20th, to the beginning of November, the variant caused 28% of infections; 62% of infections were caused in the week ending December 9."

媒体用“逃离伦敦”来形容英国民众现状，情况属实吗？

The media used "escape from London" to describe the status quo of the British people. Is it true?

英国政府要宣布封城，伦敦作为一个通勤国际大都市，很多人是在这工作，并不在这居住，封城就意味着回不了家，所以要在周末之前赶回。

The British government will announce the closure of the city. London is an international commuter city. Many people work here and do not live here. The closure of the city means that they cannot return home, so they must return before the weekend.

一年一度的传统的节日圣诞节要来了，大家都赶着回家和亲人团聚，心情非常急迫。

The annual traditional holiday Christmas is coming. Everyone is rushing home to reunite with their relatives in a very urgent mood.

刚刚宣布的病毒变异，传播速率非常快，这无疑给民众心理又造成一定的恐慌。据我了解，全世界已经有将近30多个国家和地区停止了和英国的航线往来。最新消息是欧盟正在紧急磋商，法国政府表示将会出台一个协议，尽快恢复和英国的交通。

The virus mutation just announced has spread very fast, which undoubtedly caused some panic in the people's mind. As far as I know, nearly 30 countries and regions around the world have stopped air routes with the UK. The latest news is that the EU is negotiating urgently, and the French government has indicated that it will issue an agreement to resume traffic with the UK as soon as possible.

变异新冠病毒传播率提高70%，准确吗？

The transmission rate of mutated new coronavirus has increased by 70%, is it accurate? 

中国疾控中心副主任 冯子健：这个结果确实是数学模型推演的，因为没办法在人群中去实际测算，只能用模型来推测。

Feng Zijian, deputy director of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: This result is indeed deduced by a mathematical model, because there is no way to actually measure it among the population, and can only use models to speculate.

但它也给我们一个很重要的提示，在人群中也可以看到变异新冠病毒传播增强的迹象，也有一些实际数据。比如，最近七八周，在英国，特别是中南部的发病率，每周大概提升4倍，而新的变异毒株所占比例也大幅提升，这从一个方面也佐证了变异新冠病毒传播能力增强。另外，病毒现在发现的变异主要是在它的刺突蛋白上发生变异，刺突蛋白非常重要，因为在病毒侵入人体后和人细胞结合时，它是一个非常重要的部位、区域，特别是在受体结合区域（RBD）也有基因变异，这就更令人担心。

But it also gives us a very important reminder that signs of increased transmission of mutant new coronaviruses can also be seen in the population, and there are some actual data. For example, in the past seven or eight weeks, the incidence rate in the United Kingdom, especially in the central and southern parts of the country, has increased by about 4 times per week, and the proportion of new mutant strains has also increased significantly. This also confirms the ability of the mutant new coronavirus to spread. Enhanced. In addition, the mutation found in the virus is mainly in its spike protein. The spike protein is very important because it is a very important part and area when the virus invades the human body and combines with human cells. There are also genetic mutations in the receptor binding region (RBD), which is even more worrying.

变异的新冠病毒：致病性和病毒毒力目前没有迹象表明有提升

Mutated new coronavirus: pathogenicity and virus virulence are currently no signs of improvement

冯子健：致病性主要看感染了多少人，其中有多少人发病，出现症状，这个比例才能反映它的致病性，现在看来变异的新冠病毒好像没有迹象表明致病性的提高。相反，倒是看到了另一个现象，无症状感染者比例在上升，如果这样，反而是致病性在下降。另外，没有看到病毒毒力的提升，毒力是用致死率或病死率来反映，目前也没有观察到病死率的上升，这是目前对它的一个基本认识。目前疫苗所产生的抗体，保护性和变异病毒之间有没有交叉保护，或者既往感染后的免疫，是否对它也起到保护作用？在这方面还没有更多数据，还要进一步观察，进一步做实验室包括动物实验来进行验证。

Feng Zijian: The pathogenicity mainly depends on how many people are infected, and how many of them are sick and have symptoms. This ratio can reflect its pathogenicity. It seems that the mutated new coronavirus seems to have no signs of increased pathogenicity. On the contrary, we have seen another phenomenon. The proportion of asymptomatic infections is increasing. If this is the case, the pathogenicity is decreasing. In addition, no increase in the virulence of the virus has been seen. The virulence is reflected in the fatality rate or the case fatality rate. At present, there is no increase in the case fatality rate. This is a basic understanding of it. Is there any cross-protection between the antibodies produced by the current vaccine and the protective and mutant viruses, or does the immunity after previous infections also protect it? There is no more data in this area, and further observations are needed, and further laboratory tests, including animal experiments, are needed for verification.

国家疾控中心非常关注在国际上发生的病毒传播、变异，包括传播特征的变化，所有信息我们都高度关注。对于英国发生的情况，最近一段时间我们一直在关注英国公共卫生署和科学机构，以及国际上一些重要公共卫生组织、国际专业机构组织对变异病毒的认识分析，披露和呈现的数据。同时，对于病毒变异情况，我们也利用国际基因数据库进行一些分析，做一些研判，对它的传播风险、在全球进一步扩散的情况，包括未来是否会成为主流毒株等认识，包括我们可以采取哪些措施来做好防范，都有认真研究和考虑。

The National Center for Disease Control and Prevention is very concerned about the spread and mutation of the virus in the international arena, including changes in transmission characteristics, and we pay great attention to all information. Regarding what happened in the UK, we have been paying close attention to the analysis, disclosure and presentation of the data of the mutant virus by the Public Health Agency and scientific institutions, as well as some important international public health organizations and international professional organizations. At the same time, for the virus mutation, we also use the international genetic database to conduct some analysis and make some research and judgments, to understand its spread risk, further spread in the world, including whether it will become a mainstream virus strain in the future, including what we can do Measures to take precautions are carefully studied and considered.

目前我国没有发现变异新冠病毒输入情况

At present, my country has not found the import of mutated new coronavirus

冯子健：从我国所获得的病毒序列来看，不管是输入人员、货物还是冷链产品等，从各种途径获得的病毒，都没有发现我国已有变异病毒输入。当然，我们还会继续高度关注，密切监视病毒的活动情况。

Feng Zijian: Judging from the virus sequences obtained in my country, whether it is imported personnel, goods or cold chain products, viruses obtained from various sources have not been found to have imported mutant viruses in my country. Of course, we will continue to pay close attention to and closely monitor the activity of the virus.

变异新冠病毒出现，中国如何加强“外防输入”工作？冯子健表示：一方面，我们要严密关注英国和欧洲，甚至全球变异病毒传播的情况；另一方面，也要再进一步检视现在的防控措施。我国多个月以来所采取的“外防输入、内防反弹”的各项措施，可以非常有效预防境外病毒输入，特别是能非常有效应对输入病毒之后引起的进一步传播。针对英国这次出现的变异病毒，还要在哪些环节，哪些措施上进一步加强，我们正在进行研究和评估。

With the emergence of the mutated new coronavirus, how does China strengthen its "foreign import prevention" work? Feng Zijian said: On the one hand, we must pay close attention to the spread of the mutated virus in Britain, Europe, and even the world; on the other hand, we must further review the current prevention and control measures. The various measures taken by our country for the past several months to prevent the import of foreign viruses and the prevention of internal rebounds can be very effective in preventing the import of viruses from abroad, especially in response to further transmission caused by imported viruses. Regarding the mutated virus that emerged in the UK this time, we are conducting research and evaluation in which links and measures should be further strengthened.

在境外冷冻链食品防范上，还需要做些什么？冯子健表示：因为最近发生了多起经过进口货物和国际运输工具污染引起的疫情传播，我们已经在这方面加强了很多防控措施，包括入境之后的检疫检验，包括对产品进行消毒，采用进口货物专门仓储条件，对接触进口货品、进口交通工具的人员进行防护，加强对他们的核酸检测等。这些措施已经得到加强，也起到了很好的效果。

What else needs to be done in the prevention of overseas frozen chain food? Feng Zijian said: Because there have been many recent epidemics caused by the contamination of imported goods and international transportation, we have strengthened many prevention and control measures in this regard, including post-entry quarantine inspection, including disinfection of products, and imported goods. Special storage conditions are used to protect people who come into contact with imported goods and imported vehicles, and strengthen their nucleic acid testing. These measures have been strengthened and have produced good results.

对于“环境传人”的现象，冯子健表示，环境传染对病毒来说可能是一个很重要的问题，但目前在我国发现的情况还是个例，是非常少见的现象。但在这方面应该加强防备，特别是对感染者的粪便，排污系统的管理，卫生措施的落实，这方面非常重要。

Regarding the phenomenon of "environmental transmission", Feng Zijian said that environmental infection may be a very important issue for viruses, but the situation currently found in our country is still a rare case. But in this regard, we should strengthen precautions, especially the management of the feces of the infected, the management of the sewage system, and the implementation of sanitary measures. This is very important.

元旦假期还能出行吗？

Can I still travel during the New Year's Day holiday?

冯子健：可以出行，因为我国目前整体上的状况非常安全。但还是要遵守保持人际距离、戴好口罩、加强个人卫生，同时对于老年人、慢性病患者尽量减少出行。

 

From website: https://baijiahao.baidu.com/