译语翻译分享-专家预测：2021年全球经济四种前景

《俄罗斯报》网站12月7日刊载题为《2021年将会怎样：四种情况》的文章，作者系俄罗斯科学院世界经济和国际关系研究所国际资本市场部主任雅科夫·米尔金，文章预测了2021年全球经济会出现的四种前景，并分析了2021年美元汇率的多种可能趋势。全文摘编如下：

An article entitled "What Will Be In 2021: Four Situations" was published on the website of "Russia" on December 7th. The author is Yakov Mirkin, Director of the International Capital Markets Department of the Institute of World Economics and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. It predicts four prospects for the global economy in 2021, and analyzes a variety of possible trends in the US dollar exchange rate in 2021. The full text is excerpted as follows:

俄罗斯是开放的经济体，经济运行直接依赖于全球对俄原材料的需求和全球金融稳定。2021年将会怎样？展望明年每个人都战战兢兢。

Russia is an open economy, and its economic operation directly depends on the global demand for Russian raw materials and global financial stability. What will happen in 2021? Looking forward to next year, everyone is trembling.

2021年的前景将由疫情和经济周期决定。世界经济应在2020年经历本轮周期的底部，并在2021年离开底部。

The outlook for 2021 will be determined by the epidemic and the economic cycle. The world economy should experience the bottom of this cycle in 2020 and leave the bottom in 2021.

可能出现四种情况。第一种情况（概率为45%至50%）：世界经济仍处于“萧条”区间。俄罗斯的原材料销售（的价格和数量）不太乐观。七国集团（G7）国家的国内生产总值（GDP）萎缩3%至5%，不过亚洲——尤其是中国——仍然维持经济增长。全球金融市场剧烈动荡，股市和汇市以10%至20%的振幅频繁波动。各国债务开始出现问题。G7国家的债务已超过其GDP的140%。俄罗斯的情况也不太好。

Four situations may occur. The first situation (with a probability of 45% to 50%): the world economy is still in the "depression" range. Raw material sales (price and quantity) in Russia are not very optimistic. The gross domestic product (GDP) of the Group of Seven (G7) countries has shrunk by 3% to 5%, but Asia-especially China-still maintains economic growth. The global financial market is volatile, and the stock and foreign exchange markets fluctuate frequently with an amplitude of 10% to 20%. The debts of various countries have begun to have problems. The debt of the G7 countries has exceeded 140% of their GDP. The situation in Russia is not very good either.

第二种情况（概率为15%至30%）：发生奇迹。世界经济呈现V形增长，金融市场大幅上涨，所有人都想要原材料。世界各国都在奇迹般地接种疫苗，疫情告一段落。国际货币基金组织欣喜地做出了这种预测，这也是他们希望的情况。全球GDP增速超过5%，发达国家经济增速为4%至6%，中国和印度增长最快，为8%至9%。而俄罗斯的日子过得也不错，捷报频传。得抓紧买股票了，因为股市将出现暴涨！

The second case (probability is 15% to 30%): a miracle occurs. The world economy has shown a V-shaped growth, the financial market has risen sharply, and everyone wants raw materials. All countries in the world are miraculously vaccinated, and the epidemic is over. The International Monetary Fund happily made this prediction, which is what they hoped for. The global GDP growth rate exceeds 5%, the economic growth rate of developed countries is 4% to 6%, and China and India grow the fastest at 8% to 9%. Life in Russia is also going well, with good news coming. You have to hurry up to buy stocks, because the stock market will soar!

停停停！请别那么快！还有第三种情况（概率为20%至30%）：世界将重复2020年的情形。出现第三波大流行，各国政府试图在牺牲人命和拯救经济之间找到折中道路，而且还不能输掉大选。发达国家GDP萎缩7%至10%。石油和天然气的需求和价格都不见增长。俄罗斯经济继续下滑，全国各地一片哀嚎。所有国家的货币和股票都陷入风暴，跌幅达到20%至35%。生活如履薄冰，各种艰险层出不穷。人们会产生从2020年开始新纪年的想法。

Stop it! Please don't be so fast! There is a third case (20% to 30% probability): the world will repeat the situation in 2020. In the third wave of pandemic, governments of various countries are trying to find a compromise between sacrificing lives and saving the economy, and they cannot lose the election. The GDP of developed countries shrank by 7% to 10%. The demand and price of oil and natural gas have not increased. The Russian economy continues to decline, and there is a wailing all over the country. The currencies and stocks of all countries are caught in a storm, falling by 20% to 35%. Life is like walking on thin ice, with all kinds of difficulties and dangers emerging one after another. People will have the idea of ​​starting a new year in 2020.

最后还有第四种情况（概率为5%）：冒出恐怖的“黑天鹅”。我们将遭遇某种全球性的新情况，并且最终开始相信气候变化的疯狂以及亲爱的地球不再爱我们的事实。具体会发生什么情况我们也不知道。众所周知，自上世纪80年代以来，造成系统性影响的灾难多次发生，频率比过去增加了两三倍。地缘政治和军事风险居高不下。这类不幸事件一旦发生，G7国家经济预计将萎缩10%至20%，金融市场将下跌30%至40%。我们担心美国（股票）、G7（国债）、拉丁美洲以及其他新兴市场的泡沫将发生破裂。先生，地震了！

Finally, there is a fourth situation (with a probability of 5%): a terrifying "black swan" emerges. We will encounter some kind of new global situation and finally begin to believe in the madness of climate change and the fact that dear earth no longer loves us. We don't know exactly what will happen. As we all know, since the 1980s, disasters causing systemic impact have occurred many times, and the frequency has increased two or three times compared with the past. Geopolitical and military risks remain high. Once such unfortunate events happen, the economies of G7 countries are expected to shrink by 10% to 20%, and financial markets will fall by 30% to 40%. We are worried that bubbles in the United States (stocks), G7 (national debt), Latin America and other emerging markets will burst. Sir, there is an earthquake!

在此之前我们怎么办？回答是我们正在密切关注全球动态。

What shall we do before this? The answer is that we are paying close attention to global developments.

 

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