华为禁令今日正式生效！影响到底有多大？

 

     9月15日，美国对华为的新禁令正式生效。

     On September 15, the new US ban on Huawei took effect.
　　据此前消息，今日起台积电、高通、三星、SK海力士、美光等主要元器件厂商将不再供应芯片给华为，除非受到特殊许可，但显然，美国不会给机会。
　　According to the previous news, TSMC, Qualcomm, Samsung, SK Hynix, Meguiar and other major component manufacturers will no longer supply chips to Huawei, unless they are granted special permission, but obviously, the United States will not give opportunities.
　　没有任何缓和余地，华为显然已经做了最坏的打算。据国内媒体报道，对于芯片断供问题，华为暂时没有B计划，具体应对措施主要还是寻求国产替代方案。
　　There is no room for moderation, and Huawei is clearly preparing for the worst. According to domestic media reports, Huawei has no plan B for the problem of chip supply interruption, and the specific countermeasures are mainly to seek domestic alternatives.
　　此外，消息称，华为虽然高端手机面临困难，但是后续可以降维做汽车或者OLED驱动芯片，并且发展笔记本电脑、平板等其他手机周边产品。

　　In addition, the source said that although Huawei faces difficulties in high-end mobile phones, it can reduce its dimension to make automobile or OLED driver chips, and develop notebook computers, tablets and other mobile phone peripheral products.

    有分析指出，华为在关键原材料尚有不同程度存货，且部分器件已实现基础替代，以及出货节奏的控制，短期1-2年内整体业务破坏性影响预计不会特别明显。

    Some analysis points out that Huawei still has different levels of inventory of key raw materials, and some devices have realized basic replacement, as well as the control of shipping rhythm. The overall business destructive impact is not expected to be particularly obvious in the short term of 1-2 years.
　　但由于上游厂商大多难抵美国法令，9月15日后被动选择不予华为供货将成为事实，华为中长期将会面临业务战略选择、产业链重构尝试等重要问题，同时中国科技内循环也被更加重视。
　　However, due to the fact that most upstream manufacturers are unable to comply with the U.S. laws and regulations, it will become a fact that Huawei will passively choose not to supply products from Huawei after September 15. Huawei will face important problems in the medium and long term, such as business strategy selection, industrial chain reconstruction attempt, and so on. At the same time, China's internal circulation of science and technology has also been paid more attention.
　　此前，有人爆料，华为海思包了一台货运专机到台湾，把麒麟与相关芯片在9月14日之前运回所有芯片。
　　Previously, it was disclosed that Huawei Hisilicon had contracted a special cargo plane to Taiwan to ship Kirin and related chips back to all chips before September 14.
　　所以，麒麟9000的备货支撑华为Mate 40如期发布不成问题。在日前公布的HDC 2020大会的个人日志视频中，面对下一代华为Mate手机何时发布的问题，余承东亲口承诺，请大家再等一等，一切都会如期而至。
　　Therefore, it is not a problem for Qilin 9000 to support Huawei mate 40 release on schedule. In the personal log video of HDC 2020 conference released a few days ago, faced with the issue of when the next generation Huawei mate mobile phone will be released, Yu Chengdong personally promised that everyone would wait a moment, and everything will come as scheduled.
　　9月8日，在中国信创黄埔论坛上，倪光南院士认为，华为不会面临“无芯可用”的困境。他认为，虽然中国芯片产业在7nm技术上收到制约，但是依靠中国现有的技术，依然可以制作出14nm或28nm的芯片，这对华为来说是一条出路。
　　On September 8, at the China Xinchuang Huangpu forum, academician Ni Guangnan believed that Huawei would not face the dilemma of "no core available". He believes that although China's chip industry is restricted in 7Nm technology, it can still produce 14nm or 28nm chips depending on China's existing technology, which is a way out for Huawei.
　　虽然短期内还做不到7nm、5nm的先进制程芯片，但这也只影响手机业务。大部分科技产品使用14nm、28nm芯片已经绰绰有余。这意味着除了手机芯片，华为的网络设备芯片制造基本不受影响。

 

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